Curve DAO 4h up CHoCH meets 0.3564 five-touch resistance

An up change of character through 0.3429 while price leans into the five‑touch 0.3564 cap defines the tape. The last 24 four‑hour bars carved out a 0.3293–0.3587 range, and price now sits closer to the top of that band with a nearby five‑touch shelf at 0.3437 supporting the shift.

The structure

The prevailing designation is a downtrend, but the most recent break is an up change of character through 0.3429. That pivot matters because it interrupts a sequence that had been producing repeated lower lows and re‑anchors the near‑term battle around the 0.3437/0.3564 pair. Price closed at 0.3545, placing it above the 0.3448 and 0.3485 moving averages and below the anchored VWAP at 0.3615. Directional strength is muted, with an ADX of 15.39 and the regime labelled ranging, consistent with a market compressing for a decision. Bollinger width sits at 7.19, a low‑volatility posture by its 17.86th percentile reading.

Structurally, the last swing low is 0.3293 and the last swing high is 0.3429. Acceptance above 0.3564 would confirm that the CHoCH is converting into a bullish basing structure; failure there and a slip back through 0.3437 would keep the larger downtrend intact and reopen the lower supports.

What the levels say

• Nearest support: 0.3437 (five touches, strength 0.977). This is the pivot the long side must defend on pullbacks.
• Secondary supports: 0.3298 (two touches, strength 0.651), then 0.3115 (three touches, strength 0.668), and 0.2995 (three touches, strength 0.645). A break of one often hands the baton to the next in sequence.
• Immediate resistance: 0.3564 (five touches, strength 0.991). The 24‑bar high at 0.3587 sits just above, making this a compact decision zone.
• Higher resistances: 0.3821 (two touches, strength 0.653), 0.3925 (two touches, strength 0.671), and 0.4061 (one touch, strength 0.575).

The message from the grid is clear: 0.3437–0.3564 is the pivotal band. Hold above the former and clear the latter to unlock the higher ladder of 0.3821 and 0.3925; lose 0.3437 and the path reverts toward 0.3298 and below.

Positioning

Derivatives lean constructive without excess. Funding is positive at 0.000048 versus a 7‑day average of 0.000027, with a funding percentile of 37.05, indicating positioning is not stretched. Open interest stands at 64963704.5 and has risen 2.8% over three days, signalling fresh participation building into this test of resistance. Spot activity is light, with latest volume at 557830.4 against a 20‑period average of 1228694.9, a ratio of 0.45, so breakouts will need sponsorship to sustain.

Momentum has turned supportive rather than dominant: RSI sits at 57.27 and the MACD histogram is positive at 0.0026 with the line at -0.0009 above a -0.0035 signal. Volatility remains modest with an ATR of 0.0106 and an ATR percentage of 2.98. Price is below the anchored VWAP at 0.3615, a logical waypoint for any topside continuation.

A notable tell underneath the CHoCH is the bullish divergence four bars ago: price slipped from 0.3304 to 0.3293 while RSI rose from 40.1 to 54.2. That divergence helped spring the turn through 0.3429 and locates 0.3293 as an important failure point if retested.

The setup

Bias: long. The entry sits in the 0.3466–0.3571 band, aligning with the 0.3437 support cluster and the 0.3564 resistance lid. The invalidation is 0.3384 as a price; the thesis fails on an accepted close below that level. Initial targets are 0.3821 and 0.3925, with the anchored VWAP at 0.3615 as an interim checkpoint. The risk‑reward for the defined plan is 2.25. The rationale is straightforward: long against the 0.3437 support cluster (five touches, strength 0.977); thesis fails on an accepted close below 0.3384.

What would change the thesis is straightforward: repeated rejection at 0.3564 followed by acceptance back below 0.3437 would shift focus to 0.3298, then 0.3115 and 0.2995. Conversely, acceptance above 0.3564 and reclamation of 0.3615 would confirm the CHoCH as a base transition and keep 0.3821 and 0.3925 in play.