Filecoin 4h BOS above 1.02 with 1.03 support in play

The 4h chart has just confirmed an upside break of structure through 1.02, flipping the prior swing high and positioning price above the three‑touch 1.03 support cluster while 1.06 caps the last 24 bars.

The structure

The prevailing read has been a range, but the pivot sequence has progressed to higher lows, culminating in the latest break up through 1.02. Price closed at 1.04 and remains above a bullish moving‑average stack (1, 0.9683, 0.8602), with the anchored VWAP at 0.9521 providing a secondary dynamic floor. The last 24‑bar extremes are 1.06 on the high and 0.912 on the low, neatly framing immediate resistance and the most recent downside excursion. A trending regime with an ADX of 29.62 and elevated volatility (percentile 78.6) supports continuation if 1.03 holds on retests.

What the levels say

Nearest support sits at 1.03 with three touches and a strength reading of 0.795, now the reference for acceptance after the break. Beneath it, additional supports step down at 0.911 (two touches, 0.691), 0.8796 (two touches, 0.637), and 0.8451 (three touches, 0.728), mapping a layered base should price probe deeper. Overhead, 1.06—also the high of the last 24 bars—remains the first cap (one touch, 0.589). A clean break there opens the next measured resistance at 1.13 (one touch, 0.577). The prior swing high at 1.02 is now the pivot reclaimed; losing it would put the 1.03 cluster at risk of failing, and below that, the ladder of supports comes back into play.

Positioning

Perps are constructive but not stretched. Funding sits at 0.0001 versus a 7‑day average of 0.000079, with a percentile of 54.62—mildly positive and middle‑of‑the‑pack. Open interest is 51903300.8, down 10.68% over three days, consistent with cleaner spot‑led flow into the break rather than aggressive leveraged chasing. Turnover is subdued: latest volume of 894407.9 against a 20‑period average of 3072370.4 (ratio 0.29) and no spike flag. Volatility context is supportive without being extreme: Bollinger width at 16.43 with a percentile of 68.25. The broader backdrop leans risk‑on with a fear‑greed reading of 74.

The setup

Bias: long. The working plan is to trade against the 1.03 cluster after the break through 1.02. The defined entry zone is 1.03–1.05, with invalidation at 1.01. Targets sit at 1.13 first, then 1.2, implying a risk‑reward of 3 if the level holds and price clears 1.06. Mechanically, acceptance above 1.06 should convert that cap into a platform for extension toward 1.13, with 1.03 expected to function as the reload area on intraperiod dips while the anchored VWAP at 0.9521 remains unthreatened.

A 4h close below 1.01 invalidates the long bias and signals the 1.03 shelf has failed. Short of that, the thesis would weaken if rejection from 1.06 coincides with sustained closes back under 1.03 and rebuilding open interest alongside softening funding toward or below 0.000079, as that would indicate fresh supply stepping in above the range and the break losing sponsorship.